MOSCOW, June 5. /TASS/. The loss to Ukrainian exports stemming from the expiration of the European Union’s trade preference regime this year is expected to amount to approximately $800 mln, according to Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Nikolaychuk.
"As of June 6, the trade preferences granted by the European Union will no longer be in effect. <…> Based on our estimates, the net export losses, taking into account continued trade beyond the established quotas and partial redirection to other markets during the June-December period, will total around $800 mln," he stated during a briefing broadcast on the National Bank of Ukraine’s official website.
Earlier, former Verkhovna Rada Speaker and current MP Dmitry Razumkov offered a more pessimistic forecast, estimating Ukraine’s potential losses at 3.5 bln euro.
On May 15, Bloomberg, citing European Commission documents, reported that the European Union intends to reinstate import quotas in June on key agricultural products from Ukraine, including wheat, corn, barley, poultry, and eggs. These quotas had originally been suspended in March 2022 as part of the EU’s support measures for Kiev. Between 2023 and 2024, the quotas were temporarily reinstated and suspended multiple times in response to protests by farmers in neighboring countries over the oversupply of Ukrainian goods flooding their domestic markets.
Officials in Kiev have expressed hopes of securing a new trade agreement with the EU to offset losses resulting from the reimposition of tariffs on Ukrainian exports exceeding the quota thresholds. In 2024, agricultural products accounted for roughly 60% of Ukraine’s total exports, which stood at $41.6 bln. Approximately 60% of these agricultural exports were destined for the European Union.